What moves the Dow, Nasdaq
and S&P 500 next — and which way下一步撼动道指、纳指和标普的事件
以及涨跌方向
How to read a call如何看懂涨跌判断
The desk thinks there is a 54% chance the Dow closes higher that day than the day before — and a 46% chance it closes lower. It is a probability, not the size of the move.市场观察认为道指当天收盘高于前一天收盘的概率为 54%，收低的概率为 46%。这是概率，不是涨跌幅。
- 50% is a coin flip. The further from 50%, the stronger the call. Before a release most calls sit between 50% and 60%.50% 相当于抛硬币，离 50% 越远判断越强。数据公布前，多数判断在 50%–60% 之间。
- ▲ up / ▼ down is the more likely direction for that index. – No clear lean means 48–52%: no real edge either way.▲ 涨 / ▼ 跌是该指数更可能的方向。– 无明显倾向表示 48%–52%，两边都没有真正的优势。
- Before the open (about 9:20 AM ET) the call for that day is re-read from index futures — the strongest guide there is to the day’s close, tested in the calendar view — and then locked at 9:30. Days further ahead have no such signal, so most of their calls sit near 50%.开盘前（美东约上午 9:20）会根据股指期货重新判断当天走势——这是收盘方向最有力的指引，回测见日历视图——然后在 9:30 锁定。更远的日期没有这类信号，所以大多接近 50%。
- Low / medium / high impact is how much this kind of event usually moves that index.低 / 中 / 高影响表示这类事件通常对该指数影响多大。
- Call for the day combines all of that day’s events into one call per index. A report after the 4 PM ET close counts toward the next trading day, when the market first trades on it.当日判断把当天所有事件合并成每个指数一个判断。美东下午 4 点收盘后发布的财报计入下一个交易日，因为市场在那时才首次反映。
- Every day’s call is locked before the open and checked against the close: see the calendar’s ✓ / ✗ and the track record.每天的判断在开盘前锁定、收盘后核对：见日历中的 ✓ / ✗ 与历史命中。
- Loading the desk’s latest run…正在载入最新结果…
Each day shows the chance each index closes up ▲ or down ▼ that day (50% = coin flip). Past days show the actual close and ✓ / ✗. Pick a day for its events.每天显示各指数当天收涨 ▲ 或收跌 ▼ 的概率（50% 即抛硬币）。已过的交易日显示实际涨跌与 ✓ / ✗。点选日期查看当日事件。
AI-generated market commentary for information only — not investment advice. Each up/down call carries the probability it is right; before a release that edge is small, and every call is scored against the close so you can judge it yourself.AI 生成的市场评论，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。每个涨跌判断都附有正确概率；数据公布前优势很小，所有判断都会以收盘结果评分，供你自行判断。